Daily Forex Commentary: Euro, USDJPY

The EURO closed lower on Friday and below the 10 day moving average crossing suggesting that a short term top may have posted. The low range close could have set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish suggesting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. A close below the 20 day moving average crossing could be needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If it extends the rebound off May's low, the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing is the next upside level. USDJPY closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high range close could set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term bottom might be in place. A close above the 20 day moving average crossing is needed to suggest...
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Swiss Franc Up Vs Euro As Debt Fears Persist

Posted 29/11/10
ZURICH, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc rose against the euro on Monday as investor focus switched to euro zone debt concerns in Portugal and Spain, supporting the safe haven Swissie, after EU ministers endorsed a loan package for Ireland. Markets will be anxious to gauge whether the 85 billion euro debt package aimed at helping Dublin cover bad bank debts and close an outsize budget deficit will prevent fears spilling over to other troubled euro zone economies. "A lot depends on how the market reacts to the Irish decision. Will it be a relief or will they still be sceptical over Portugal and maybe Spain?" said Commerzbank foreign exchange analyst You-Na Park. "It is positive that Ireland now has its bailout package and we have more details, but the volume was not as big as investors expected, so we have to see if this will satisfy the market." Some analysts are particularly concerned about Spain, as they say the European Financial Stability...
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Swiss Franc Steadies vs Euro After Previous Day’s Rally

Posted 24/11/10
ZURICH, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc traded near flat against the euro on Wednesday after the safe haven currency rose sharply in the previous session on worries about the European debt crisis and tensions in the Korean Peninsula. At 0813 GMT, the Swiss franc was largely unchanged versus the euro compared to the New York close, trading at 1.3323 per euro after breaking through the 1.33 threshold on Tuesday as investors sought safe assets. "We think that over a one-month period, there is a possibility that the euro could go up to 1.36. Over the longer term, we are neutral as we see stable interest rate differentials. We see it at 1.34," Credit Suisse analyst Marcus Hettinger said. Against the dollar, the franc was 0.2 percent firmer at 0.9949 per dollar, as the return to parity continued to elude the greenback.  Hettinger said the dollar could touch parity against the franc in the next couple of days as the recent rise in...
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POLL-Australia dlr to hold parity fort on hawkish RBA

Posted 4/11/10
SYDNEY, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The surging Australian dollar should keep most of its gains in coming months to be near parity against the U.S. dollar on hopes domestic rates, already the highest in the developed world, may head even higher. A Reuters poll of around 45 analysts showed the Australian dollar AUD=D4 is seen strong at $0.9900 in the next three months, before pulling back to $0.9700 and $0.9500 in six and 12 months time. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised many investors this week when it raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent -- well above the average 0.54 percent in developed economies -- and suggested more hikes could follow. The hawkish RBA, in stark contrast to the dovish Federal Reserve which launched its second round of quantitative easing this week, should underpin the Australian dollar. "In the wake of the unexpected RBA rate hike this week and its still relatively hawkish tone, the Australian dollar should...
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Gains for the yen after FOMC

Posted 4/11/10
Majors witnesses limited movements after yesterday’s volatility when the Feds decided to adopt a new round of quantitative easing measures and buy government bonds. The yen rose against the dollar and other majors on expectations the Japanese exporting companies bought the yen after it fell last week. The euro fell slightly against the dollar during today’s Asian session, trading around the level 1.4120, recording a high of 1.4142 and a low of 1.4101. Breaking the level 1.4100 during yesterday may limit the pair’s movement for a while as markets await the ECB rate decision and Trichet press conference later in the day. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area. The pound rose against the dollar during today recording a high of 1.3132 and a low of 1.6087. The pound now trades around 1.6116 and faces a resistance at 1.6180. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area. The yen fell...
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Volatility in the currency market

Posted 3/11/10
The currency market is dominated by volatility during the Asian session except in the U.S., especially with the approach of the Republican Party taking over the majority of Congress. In addition, investors are expected the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, throughout which they could announce a new round of quantitative easing policies. The euro slightly fell against the dollar during the Asian session trading around the level 1.4000, recording a high of 1.4045 and a low of 1.4007, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area.  The British pound rose in a narrow range against the dollar, recording a high of 1.6044 and a low of 1.6022, and now it trades around 1.6037 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor a downside movement.  The yen/dollar...
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Fluctuation movements in the currency market

Posted 3/11/10
The currency market is witnessing fluctuation movements during the Asian session without in the U.S., especially with the approach of the Republican Party takeover of a majority of Congress. In addition, investors are expected the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which will put the new assistance plan for the U.S. economy.  The euro slightly delcine against the dollar during the Asian session trading around the level 1.4000, recording a high of 1.4045 and a low of 1.4007, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area.  The British pound rose in a narrow range against the dollar, recording a high of 1.6044 and a low of 1.6022, and now it trades around 1.6037 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor a downside movement.  The yen/dollar pair...
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The RBA’s decision to raise interest rate increased demand on higher-yielding...

Posted 2/11/10
The Japanese currency declined against the greenback and its major counterparts during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly rose the interest rate, increasing the demand for higher-yielding currencies.  The euro inclined against the dollar during the Asian session trading over the level 1.3900, recording a high of 1.3936 and a low of 1.3880, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000 which might weaken the upside movement of the pair. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area.  The British pound rose in a narrow range against the dollar during the Asian session, recording a high of 1.6065 and a low of 1.6032, and now it trades around 1.6056 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor a downside movement.  The yen fell against the dollar, recording a high...
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Market consolidation and gathering momentum after Asian session rally

Posted 1/11/10
The awaited week has finally started and the FOMC decision is creeping closer by the day. The market was supported further on the back of the dollar and the risk appetite was powered by manufacturing data which eased the woes over the outlook for the recovery. We started the week with an early push from China which reported the acceleration in manufacturing activity by the most in six months. UK also followed suit with upbeat manufacturing figures for October where the index rose to 54.9 from 53.4 opposing the expected deceleration. The market is focused on the prospects for the recovery and the momentum seen in economies, especially as fears eased slightly with the 2.0% expansion reported in the third quarter from the US. And now with the expected QE2 to be unveiled this week the support is further seen. For now, the dollar as tracked by the dollar index is back to trade flat below early highs recorded at 77.21 currently hovering...
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BoJ’s possible intervention dragged the yen down

Posted 1/11/10
The yen fell against the dollar and other majors during today’s Asian session on increased expectations that BoJ is on its way to intervene again in the currency market this week, in order to lower the yen’s value since it brought so much damage to the country’s exports. The euro rose against the dollar during the Asian session trading over the level 1.3950, recording a high of 1.3996 and a low of 1.3894, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000 which might weaken the upside movement of the pair. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area. The pound rose against the dollar during the Asian session, recording a high of 1.6068 and a low of 1.5987, and now it trades around 1.6055 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor...
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